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Strategies for climate resilience: glacier retreat, water security in the Himalayan region
Climate change policies worldwide should prioritize addressing deforestation and promoting sustainable environmental practices. |
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Abstract
Background: Climate change is an escalating global challenge with intense consequences for the environment and human livelihoods. Human-induced climate change, primarily driven by anthropogenic activities, presents a critical threat that necessitates urgent intervention. The rapid retreat of glaciers, especially in the Himalayan region, underscores the severity of this crisis. Covering approximately 33,000 square kilometers, Himalayan glaciers sustain nine of Asia’s largest river systems, directly impacting the lives of over 1.3 billion people. Their retreat is one of the clearest indicators of climate change and its far-reaching impacts. The Problems: By the end of the century, global temperatures are expected to increase by 1.4 to 5.8°C, largely driven by greenhouse gas emissions from fossil fuel consumption and industrial activities. This warming disrupts weather patterns, intensifies seasonal variations, and worsens water scarcity and food insecurity. Dry seasons are becoming increasingly arid, while wet seasons bring heavier rainfall, posing severe risks to ecosystems and communities dependent on climate stability. Persistent declines in water availability endanger agriculture, clean water access, energy production, and public health, further exacerbating challenges for vulnerable populations.
Recommendations: Earth observation technologies play a crucial role in tracking climate impacts, forecasting changes, and formulating adaptive strategies. Global collaboration is necessary to bridge resource gaps and promote shared responsibilities. Policies should emphasize the transition to carbon-neutral energy, curb greenhouse gas emissions, and harness scientific innovations for sustainable solutions. Meaningful dialogue between developed and developing nations is essential to strengthening collective climate resilience and driving informed action.
Conclusion: Scientific evidence underscores the pressing need to tackle climate change, which is closely tied to human activities. Governments, scientists, and policymakers must take proactive, people-centered, and environmentally responsible actions to minimize dependence on fossil fuels, embrace sustainable energy solutions, and uphold international agreements like the Kyoto Protocol. These efforts are essential for protecting the planet and ensuring a sustainable future for generations to come.
The context
According to geoscientists, global warming is contributing to an increase in the number and volume of Glacier-Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) hazards in the Himalayan region. Some of these floods have exhibited discharge rates as high as 30,000 m³/sec, traveling distances of up to 200 km (Richardson and Reynolds, 2000). Based on the average vertical lapse rate of 6.5°C per kilometer, various studies indicate that with a 1°C rise in air temperature, approximately 20% of the currently glaciated area above 5000 meters is likely to become snow and glacier-free. Furthermore, a temperature increase of 3°C and 4°C could result in the loss of 58% and 70% of glaciated areas, respectively. An increase in precipitation by more than 20% is likely to cause a significant increase in sediment delivery and more than 20% increase in annual sediment deposit could be expected in the scenario of a 50% increase in annual precipitation (MoPE, 2004).
These findings emphasize the serious consequences of global warming and climate change on Glacier Lake Outburst Floods (GLOFs). Large-scale GLOF events pose significant risks, not only to Nepal but also to neighboring regions like North India and Bangladesh, potentially causing widespread loss and destruction. Key climate change impacts in the Himalayan region include heightened GLOF hazards, greater variability in river runoff, increased sedimentation, higher evaporation from reservoirs, and disruptions to watersheds. Consequently, shifts in glacier melt and precipitation patterns are expected.
Urgent call to address climate challenges
For example, Nepal is home to a wide variety of species. A study has found that 2.4% of the biodiversity may be lost with climate change. Obviously climate change will affect agriculture. A majority of the people of Nepal depend on agricultural crops like rice, maize and wheat. Higher temperatures, increased evapo-transpiration, and decreased winter precipitation may result into droughts. It should be considered as an early warning for food security. (Uprety 2008).
With a predominantly agrarian economy where about 81 per cent of the over 26 million people of Nepal reside in rural areas – traditional, self-sustaining hill and mountain farming systems have been disrupted owing to increased population and fertile topsoil erosion combined with deforestation and environmental degradation. Migration from the hills and mountains to the fertile Tarai1 region and haphazardly developed urban centers are increasing at an unprecedented scale. Consequently, the poor, uneducated, and unemployed people are compelled to make a living by settling in flood and landslide-prone areas in the hills, Tarai plains and urban areas which are now more vulnerable to disasters due to climate change and global warming. Lack of effective land use and settlement regulations have contributed to increased vulnerability to floods and other hazards caused by both natural and anthropogenic factors. Heavy reliance on tourism and agriculture makes Nepal’s economy very susceptible to climate unpredictability (Poudyal Chhetri M. B., Bhattarai D., 2001).
Trends of warm days and warm nights are significantly increasing in the majority of the districts in Nepal. Warm spell duration is increasing significantly in the majority of the districts. Cool days are decreasing in the majority of the districts while cool nights are increasing in few north-western and northern districts and decreasing in few south-eastern districts significantly. Cold spell duration is also increasing significantly only in the far western region. It is noteworthy that maximum temperature trends are higher than minimum temperature trends in all seasons. The significant test shows maximum temperature trends are more robust than minimum temperature and precipitation trends. (Source: http://www.dhm.gov.np/)
According to a study carried out by Martin Vargic, a full-time student in Slovakia, there is enough ice in the Earth’s polar caps to cause about 250-300 ft. (80 – 100 m) rise of the sea level. Result of such an event would be catastrophic to human civilization and the earth’s biosphere. More than 75% of the world’s population lives below 300 ft. above the sea level, including the vast majority of all large metropolitan areas. If current trends continue, 80% of the Himalayan glaciers – the water source for a sixth of the world’s population – could disappear if the current rate of emissions is not reduced. (IPCC). Himalaya will have no ice by the year 2300 or even sooner. The lives of 2 billion people are at stake (WWF Nepal).
Given these observations, it is clear that climate change presents an escalating challenge with widespread and profound consequences. It is altering precipitation patterns, affecting the amount, intensity, frequency, and even form—such as shifting snowfall to rainfall in certain regions. These disruptions have significant implications for ecosystems, water resources, agriculture, and human livelihoods.
One of the most alarming consequences of these changes is the rising frequency and intensity of natural disasters. Events like floods, landslides, glacier lake outburst floods (GLOFs), and droughts are becoming more frequent and severe, posing serious risks to both lives and infrastructure. The increasing unpredictability of such events further complicates disaster preparedness and mitigation efforts, leaving vulnerable communities at even greater risk.
Beyond immediate physical destruction, these climate-driven changes have cascading long-term effects. They contribute to soil erosion, biodiversity loss, declining agricultural productivity, and increased sedimentation in rivers and reservoirs. These factors further exacerbate water management challenges, heightening risks to both food and water security.
Major climate change issues and way forward:
To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources, institutions across the Himalayan region, especially in Nepal, encounter significant obstacles in conducting modeling studies. A major obstacle is the lack of reliable observational data necessary for accurately validating model results. Furthermore, limited human and technical resources further constrain progress in this field. Bridging these gaps could be achieved through initiatives such as satellite data sharing, regional training programs, and real-time exchange of observational data, all of which would improve the quality and scope of climate impact assessments.
It is crucial for governments in the region to implement strong climate change policies with a clear emphasis on impact adaptation. Effective adaptation measures must be planned to mitigate the negative effects of climate change on the region’s socio-economic conditions. For successful adaptation planning, it is essential to understand how the regional climate may evolve in the future and how these changes could affect the hydrological regime of river basins. Climate modeling serves as a vital tool for predicting future climate trends, while hydrological modeling provides valuable insights into how these projected changes might influence river basin hydrology.
Performance can be significantly improved through close collaboration among countries that currently conduct their activities in isolation. For instance, climatic scenarios can be developed at a regional scale, while individual countries can generate higher-resolution scenarios for national applications. Similarly, hydrological models can be run at the basin scale, while higher-resolution models can be applied at the catchment level by individual nations. This collaborative approach presents an opportunity for countries to share knowledge and expertise in developing regional climate change scenarios and basinwide projections of water availability under changing climate conditions. Throughout the disaster management cycle, the groups most severely impacted are often impoverished communities and individuals living in marginal or high-risk areas. These populations typically lack the necessary resources and infrastructure to cope with or recover from the negative effects of disasters. In Nepal and similar regions, disaster management systems mainly concentrate on response measures, which, although critical, fall short in addressing the wider challenges posed by climate change and vulnerability to disasters. In order to build resilience, there is an urgent need to adopt a proactive framework that emphasizes preparedness and mitigation. This approach should involve identifying vulnerabilities, developing early warning systems, and implementing adaptive strategies tailored to local needs and environmental conditions. Government policies and plans must shift from a reactive stance, which addresses disasters after they occur, to a proactive one that anticipates risks and minimizes potential impacts.
Preparedness measures must include community education programs, capacitybuilding initiatives, and investments in disaster-resilient infrastructure. Enhancing agricultural practices is also essential, as climate change significantly affects crop yields, water availability, and food security. Promoting climate-smart agriculture—such as using droughtresistant crops, improving irrigation systems, and diversifying livelihoods— can reduce the vulnerability of rural communities to climate-induced shocks.
Additionally, integrating Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) into national and local development plans ensures that policies across sectors align with the overarching goal of climate resilience. International cooperation and access to funding for disaster preparedness and climate adaptation play a crucial role in enabling this shift. By prioritizing preparedness, mitigation, and proactive policymaking, nations can significantly reduce the vulnerability of marginalized populations to climate change and related disasters, thus fostering longterm sustainable development.
Core message
As governments prioritize poverty reduction and other development objectives, investments in Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) have consistently lagged behind. Consequently, disaster preparedness often receives minimal funding compared to the substantial resources required for disaster response and recovery. It is crucial to recognize that the adverse impacts of climate change, variability, and extreme events will hinder the achievement of national development goals unless adequate attention and funding are dedicated to mitigating these impacts. The increasing influence of climate change on precipitation patterns and the subsequent rise in disaster frequency underscore the urgent need for global action. Governments, scientists, and policymakers must collaborate to develop adaptive strategies, strengthen early warning systems, and promote sustainable practices to mitigate risks and build resilience against this growing global challenge.
Conclusions
Climate change policies worldwide should prioritize addressing deforestation and promoting sustainable environmental practices. Such measures would not only benefit millions of vulnerable individuals in developing nations but also contribute to global climate change mitigation efforts. By reducing deforestation and fostering ecological balance, proactive policies can facilitate the creation of carbon credit systems. In this framework, countries successfully implementing carbon dioxide mitigation programs can earn and sell credits. Developed nations, exceeding their emission limits under international agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol, could purchase these carbon credits to offset their emissions. This mechanism would provide financial support for forest conservation and sustainable landuse initiatives in regions like the Himalayas. This dual approach integrates environmental preservation with economic incentives, fostering collaboration between developed and developing nations to tackle the global climate crisis.
Endnote:
1 Tarai is a flat and fertile land mass of Southern part of Nepal that extends from East to West. It covers 23 percent of the total land of Nepal.
References
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